Managerial capability investment and innovation trajectories across industry knowledge bases: evidence from an emerging economy

Abstract

Rapid technological change increases managerial uncertainty about how technological capabilities should be configured to generate distinct innovation outcomes. Prior research often assumes relatively uniform returns from technological resources. Using survey data from 1,122 firms across eight industries in Vietnam, this study examines how differentiated managerial capability investments produce asymmetric incremental and disruptive innovation trajectories across diverse industry knowledge bases. A hybrid approach combining structural equation modeling with Random Forest and SHAP analysis enables theory driven testing alongside robustness diagnostics. The findings reveal structurally differentiated capability productivity. Incremental innovation is primarily driven by skills capability and digitally enabled coordination, reflecting exploitation-oriented investment patterns. Disruptive innovation is mainly enabled by collaboration capability and advanced digital maturity, indicating exploration-oriented strategies. Capability effectiveness also varies systematically across analytical, symbolic, and synthetic knowledge bases. By conceptualizing technological capabilities as industry conditioned investment configurations with asymmetric innovation effects, the study advances a contingent theory of capability productivity under technological uncertainty and highlights how firm level configurations interact with industry knowledge architectures to shape innovation trajectories.