From signals to discipline: Benchmarking Vietnam's transport decarbonization against the Norwegian experience

Abstract

The transport sector is an increasingly significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in emerging economies, where rapid urbanization and rising mobility demand place increasing pressure on climate targets. This study evaluates the efficacy of carbon pricing and complementary policy instruments in associated with reduction in transport-sector emissions, focusing on Vietnam's ongoing decarbonization efforts compared to Norway's wellestablished low-carbon transport transition. Employing a multi-method analytical framework that integrates the Synthetic Control Method, Event-study Analysis, and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, we analyze Climate TRACE emissions inventory data covering the period 2021-2025. The results suggest that Vietnam's early emission reductions are temporally associated with anticipatory responses to net-zero policy announcements. However, the short pre-treatment period limits causal inference, and the pattern of reductions is consistent with both signaling effects and alternative explanations. By contrast, Norway's long-term decarbonization performance is based on a consistently high implicit carbon price, extensive clean energy infrastructure, and a tightly integrated policy mix that combines fuel taxation, incentives for electric vehicles, and regulatory support. These findings suggest that carbon pricing in emerging transport systems is unlikely to deliver durable emission reductions unless it is embedded within a coherent and credible policy package that aligns price signals with infrastructure investment, institutional capacity, and social equity considerations. The study offers timely and policy-relevant information for Vietnam and comparable emerging economies looking to move beyond symbolic climate commitments toward disciplined, scalable, and socially inclusive low-carbon transport transitions