A copula-based reliability model for phased mission systems with dependent components PMS with dependent components

Abstract

Recently, researches on the reliability analysis of phased mission systems (PMSs) are very popular. And most of the existing research on PMSs assumed that all the components are statistically independent on each other, which is not meet the engineering reality. The system structure changes from phase to phase in the PMSs, so the dependency among components may also change in different phases. Meanwhile, the well-known phase dependency is also existing in the system reliability modeling. To model the varying dependency among components and phase dependency at the same time, a copula-based method is proposed for the reliability analysis of PMS with correlated components. Firstly, the system reliability of multi-state PMS with dependent components is evaluated by different copula functions. Then, multiple indicators are used to select the optimal copula functions for different phases. And an engineering case is illustrated to show the proposed copula-based method.